CHICAGO — As the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers battle in the 2025 World Series, the Chicago Cubs are already plotting their 2026 roster, with Shane Bieber emerging as a prime free-agent target to address their rotation’s question marks. The 31-year-old former AL Cy Young winner, currently pitching for Toronto, offers a high-upside option despite his injury history, and his postseason performance could solidify his fit for Wrigley Field. With Kyle Tucker’s free agency dominating headlines, securing Bieber could be a cost-effective move to complement the Cubs’ young core and push for a deeper 2026 playoff run.
Bieber’s Comeback: A Proven Ace with Risks
Shane Bieber, traded to the Blue Jays from Cleveland at the 2025 deadline, returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 4-2 record and 3.57 ERA in seven regular-season starts, with a 49.1% ground ball rate. In the postseason, he’s been solid, going 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA and 15 strikeouts over three starts, including six strong innings in ALCS Game 3 against the Mariners. His 2020 Triple Crown (8-1, 1.63 ERA, 122 Ks) and two All-Star nods highlight his elite potential, but a torn UCL in 2024 limited him to two starts that year, raising concerns about his velocity and command. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand named the Cubs, Yankees, and Tigers as top fits, noting Bieber’s likely rejection of a $16M player option for a multi-year deal. A strong World Series could push his value to $20M-$25M AAV, per FanGraphs projections.
Cubs’ Rotation Needs: Why Bieber Fits
Chicago’s 2025 rotation—led by Justin Steele (3.07 ERA), Shota Imanaga (4.10 ERA), and Matthew Boyd—lacked depth, with a 4.12 team ERA exposing inconsistencies. Cade Horton’s Rookie of the Year campaign helped, but Javier Assad’s regression (4.65 ERA) and Jameson Taillon’s age (34 in 2026) raise concerns. Bieber’s pinpoint control (4.6% walk rate in 2022) and slider (44% postseason whiff rate vs. righties) align with the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure, which revived Boyd post-Tommy John. Unlike high-velocity aces like Freddy Peralta, Bieber’s 93-94 MPH fastball and pitch-to-contact style suit Wrigley’s dimensions, per CubsHQ. X posts buzz: “Bieber to Cubs? Steele-Bieber 1-2 punch is 🔥” (12K likes).
Risks and Alternatives
Bieber’s injury history—missing most of 2024 and parts of 2021—makes him a gamble, with velocity down from his 2020 peak (95 MPH). Bleacher Nation notes post-surgery command risks, and his 1.54 postseason WHIP suggests rust. If the Cubs pass, alternatives include Milwaukee’s Colin Rea (3.25 ERA, $10M AAV) or a trade for Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, though his cost would deplete prospects like Owen Caissie. The Cubs could also rely on internal options like Ben Brown or hope for an Imanaga rebound, but neither matches Bieber’s upside if healthy.
Recommendation: Sign Bieber, Prioritize Cost Control
Pursue Bieber for a three-year, $60M deal, balancing his $20M AAV with injury risks. His postseason grit and familiarity with Chicago’s pitching coaches (from Cleveland ties) make him a better fit than pricier arms like Max Fried ($25M+ AAV). Pairing Bieber with Steele and Horton could form a top-tier rotation, freeing funds to re-sign Tucker or bolster the bullpen (e.g., Ryan Helsley). A qualifying offer on Tucker ensures a draft pick if he walks, offsetting prospect costs in any trade pursuits.
