š° NEWS FLASH: Toronto landing Dylan Cease could shift the pitching landscape entirely, leaving the Phillies and Ranger SuĆ”rez reassessing their path forward ā”.DD
Mr. Rager is going to get paid this winter.
The first top free agent starting pitcher went off the board on Wednesday night when the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly signed right-hander Dylan Cease to a lucrative seven-year, $210 million deal. It was surprising to see such a big contract handed out this early in the offseason, but the Blue Jays obviously aren’t messing around.
Now that one top starter has signed, the pitching market is starting to come into focus. That’s a good thing for left-hander Ranger SuĆ”rez. It might not be as good for the Philadelphia Phillies.
SuĆ”rez hit free agency this offseason after spending his entire professional career with the Phillies organization. Despite his status as a favorite among fans and the team, all indications from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have been that the Phillies simply wouldn’t be able to afford a contract for SuĆ”rez.
Re-signing slugger Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto have appeared to be the Phillies’ highest priorities this winter, making SuĆ”rez an unlikely returnee. That outcome seems even more inevitable at this point.
Blue Jaysā Dylan Cease signing puts Ranger SuĆ”rez out of Phillies’ reach
The top pitchers remaining on the market include SuƔrez, Michael King, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai.
The Phillies would love to get their foot in the door in the Japanese free agent market. While there have been rumblings that they’re interested in Imai, a healthy starting pitcher market set by this Cease deal might put them out of contention for the NPB star. But maybe, just maybe, Dombrowski can convince managing partner John Middleton that there’s value beyond the on-field performance in bringing Imai to Philadelphia.
As for SuƔrez, he was looking at a generous payday even before the Cease signing. So what does his outlook look like now? Cease will earn roughly $30 million per season, although there are some unknown deferral amounts baked into his contract.
Original contract predictions from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden prognosticated that SuĆ”rez would sign a six-year, $164 million deal (subscription required). That works out to $27.33 million per year. Bowden also predicted that Cease would get six years and $187 million, or $31.17 per season. Cease got more term and more money, but at a slightly lower AAV.
SuĆ”rez won’t get as much as Cease. The former Phillie doesn’t offer the same swing-and-miss upside that Cease provides. But after this signing by Toronto, you can see SuĆ”rez getting paid around that $28 million per season mark.
Both hurlers are Scott Boras clients. Both are 30 years old. But they bring wildly different approaches to the mound. Cease has racked up the most strikeouts since 2020 (1,150), but his inconsistent command has led him to walk the most batters (395).
SuƔrez, on the other hand, prides himself on pinpoint command. While he has averaged almost a strikeout per inning over the last three seasons (8.63 K/9), keeping runners off the bases is his recipe for success. SuƔrez had the 11th-lowest walk rate (5.8 percent) in the majors this season, while his 46.8 percent groundball rate was the 14th-highest, and his 18.9 percent soft contact rate was the eighth-highest.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand sees SuĆ”rez as being the next top starting pitcher to find a new team. Unfortunately, as we’ve suspected all along, it won’t be with the Phillies.
